Eurostat’s latest release shows that total fertility rates (TFR) fell in every one of the eight EU countries for which data are available in 2024. The spread runs from a high of 1.61 births per woman in France to a low of 1.10 in Spain, and each figure is lower than the corresponding 2019 value.

All eight countries record a decline

The dataset confirms a consistent downward trend. France’s TFR dropped from 1.86 in 2019 to 1.61 in 2024, a fall of 0.25 births per woman. Spain moved from 1.23 to 1.10, a reduction of 0.13. Belgium fell from 1.60 to 1.44 (‑0.16), while Poland’s rate slipped from 1.44 to 1.14 (‑0.30). Ireland’s TFR decreased from 1.69 to 1.47 (‑0.22), Finland from 1.35 to 1.25 (‑0.10), Italy from 1.27 to 1.18 (‑0.09) and Denmark from 1.70 to 1.47 (‑0.23). Every change is negative, confirming the packet’s key fact that “all eight countries recorded a lower total fertility rate in 2024 than in 2019.” (Eurostat)

Country‑by‑country breakdown

The table below reproduces the Eurostat figures, showing the 2024 TFR, the 2019 baseline and the absolute change over the five‑year period.

Source: Eurostat, Total fertility rate database, 2024 release.

What the numbers mean for Europe

While the figures themselves are straightforward, they sit within a broader demographic context that analysts routinely monitor. A TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman signals that, without net migration, a country’s population will eventually shrink. All eight countries in the table are already below replacement, and the further declines observed between 2019 and 2024 deepen that gap.

Lower fertility can affect a range of policy areas – from pension sustainability to labour‑market dynamics – but Eurostat’s release does not provide projections or causal analysis. The data therefore confirm a trend without explaining why it is occurring. Potential drivers that have been discussed in other research include economic uncertainty, housing costs, and changing family‑formation patterns, yet none of those explanations appear in the present source.

Uncertainties and data gaps

Eurostat’s dataset covers only eight EU members, leaving the fertility trajectories of the remaining twenty‑seven unreported in this release. The packet does not contain a timeline of previous releases, so the exact length of the observed decline cannot be placed in a longer historical perspective here. Moreover, the figures are presented as absolute changes; percentage changes are not supplied, and the packet does not calculate them. Consequently, the relative size of the decline for a country with a lower baseline (e.g., Spain) versus a higher one (e.g., France) cannot be quantified without additional arithmetic.

Another open question is the role of migration. Eurostat’s fertility database isolates births per woman and does not incorporate the impact of immigration on overall population growth. Without that information, the net demographic effect of the observed fertility drops remains partially unknown.

Looking ahead

Eurostat is expected to publish the next set of fertility figures for 2025 later in the year. Those data will reveal whether the 2024 declines represent a temporary dip or the continuation of a longer‑term downward trajectory. Policymakers across the EU will likely watch the numbers closely, especially in countries such as Poland and Spain where the absolute fall is largest.

For now, the evidence is clear: in 2024, total fertility rates fell across all eight surveyed EU nations, with France at the top of the range (1.61 births per woman) and Spain at the bottom (1.10 births per woman). The uniform decline underscores a demographic challenge that will shape European social and economic planning in the years to come.