Study projects European forest fire frequency could rise 192% under high‑emissions pathway
A peer‑reviewed analysis in *Global Change Biology* finds that, if warming reaches 3.6 °C, the number of forest fires across Europe could more than triple, while a 1.8 °C scenario still implies a 39% rise.
A new study in the peer‑reviewed journal *Global Change Biology* projects that European forest fire frequency could increase by 192 % under a high‑emissions pathway that would raise average warming to 3.6 °C, compared with a 39 % rise under a low‑emissions pathway limiting warming to 1.8 °C. Both percentages are relative to current fire levels, the study says.
Why the numbers matter now
2026 already records the largest burned forest area in Europe over the past 20 years, according to the German newspaper taz (taz – Klimawandelfolgen: Was tun, damit’s im Wald nicht brennt?). The same source notes that the summer of 2026 saw megafires in France, Spain and Portugal that are the most severe in those nations’ histories. The combination of a record‑high burned area and a looming EU climate‑policy agenda makes the study’s projections especially timely.
Projected fire frequency under two climate scenarios
The study models two contrasting emissions pathways. In the low‑emissions scenario, average temperature rise is projected at 1.8 °C; the authors calculate a +39 % increase in the number of forest fires across Europe relative to today. In the high‑emissions scenario, warming of 3.6 °C translates into a +192 % increase in fire frequency, again relative to current levels. Both figures are presented as percentage changes, not absolute numbers of fires.
| Emissions pathway | Projected temperature rise | Projected change in fire frequency | Comparison base |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low‑emissions (1.8 °C) | +1.8 °C | +39 % | Relative to current levels |
| High‑emissions (3.6 °C) | +3.6 °C | +192 % | Relative to current levels |
Source: taz – Klimawandelfolgen: Was tun, damit’s im Wald nicht brennt?
Implications for EU climate policy
The stark contrast between a 39 % and a 192 % rise underscores the potential climate‑policy lever that the European Union can pull. If the EU adopts a trajectory that keeps warming near 1.8 °C, the increase in fire frequency would be substantially lower than under a business‑as‑usual pathway that heads toward 3.6 °C. The study therefore provides a quantitative backdrop for the upcoming EU environmental legislation, which is being debated intensively as 2026 marks the year with the greatest burned area in two decades.
Uncertainties and data gaps
The authors of the study caution that their projections are based on climate‑model outputs and assumptions about future land‑use and socio‑economic drivers. The research packet does not contain a breakdown of how fire frequency might vary between northern and southern European forests, nor does it give absolute numbers of fires expected under each scenario. Consequently, policymakers and forest‑management agencies will need to combine these percentage forecasts with national fire‑statistics to assess local risk.
Furthermore, the packet does not specify the exact time horizon of the projections (e.g., 2050 or 2100). The study’s language, as reported by taz, simply states the percentage increases without attaching a specific future year. This limits the ability to map the projected rises onto concrete policy timelines.
What comes next
As the EU prepares its next wave of climate legislation, the study’s findings are likely to be cited in debates about forest‑fire mitigation, funding for fire‑fighting resources, and adaptation strategies for vulnerable regions. The record burned area of 2026 may prompt member states to request additional EU support for fire‑prevention programmes, especially in the Mediterranean basin where fire risk is already high.
Until the full peer‑reviewed article is examined, the precise methodological details remain unknown. Nonetheless, the percentages – 39 % under a low‑emissions pathway and 192 % under a high‑emissions pathway – provide a clear, data‑driven illustration of how divergent climate trajectories could reshape Europe’s forest‑fire outlook.
